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A non-food poverty line is calculated by estimating the cost of consuming a basic set of non-food goods for (i) extreme poor households whose total expenditures equals the food poverty line (Lower poverty line) (ii) moderate poor households whose food expenditure is at the food poverty line (Upper poverty line)$ P  PaP PGG'GG/GGG3G,GGGG p f___PPT10i. +D=' = @B +"+  > 2 *  (  '  ~ ??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   ]   x` 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  3d ?Poverty measurement in Bangladesh from previous rounds of HIES $@ K> ( @F   x 0e0e?Rectangle 3 3d zThe base year for the previous poverty line was 1991-92 Poverty lines (PLs) were estimated using CBN approach Separate upper and lower PLs estimated for 14 strata from HIES 1991-92  to adjust for differences in prices and consumption patterns between geographic regions Food basket: same for all strata, comprising of 11 composite items, as described in Ravallion/Sen (1996), based on Alamgir (1974) Nutritional requirement: 2122 kcal. per person per day PLs updated for 1995-96 and 2000 for changes in the cost of living using a price index Ensures that PLs reflect the same real value over time Composite price index: weighted average of survey based food price index (strata specific) and CPI non-food index (urban/rural)8P Z8 Z# Z9P ZW Z Z8GG5GGGG GwG G  G ! G W G 7 G  G k G " f___PPT10i.Y+D=' = @B +"  >    (  '  ~@ ??6Slide Number Placeholder 4^ `  h*   @   x 0e0e?Rectangle 4 `}  3d t.Poverty lines: key options considered for 2005/ /  /8 v D(/ C (Group 5" 0  N ?AutoShape 6D(/ R   nB  >?Line 7$ h%nB  >?Line 8$ h%)nB  >?Line 94h%)pB   @?Line 104))pB   @?Line 114)$-   H ?Text Box 12xd! ~Update 91/92 PLs,       H@ ?Text Box 13x8(p, Re-estimate PLs with HIES 05,   pB   @?Line 14  H ?Text Box 15`%|  vOption 1,      H` ?Text Box 16$%& vOption 2,      H ?Text Box 178(%T* vOption 3,      H ?Text Box 18p,%. vOption 4,     f___PPT10i.`"+D=' = @B +"z > y a(   '  ~0 ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   &   x 0e0e?Rectangle 2` #  3d ZKey options: 1 and 2      x` 0e0e?Rectangle 3p P 3d Option 1: updating previously used PLs by inflation during 2000-2005 Update using strata-specific composite price indices: weighted average of Tornqvist survey price indices for food items and non-food CPI (urban/rural) for non-food items To make comparisons between 2000 and 2005, poverty lines for 14 strata have to be mapped on to 16 strata Option 2: re-estimating PLs for 16 strata using HIES 2005 and deflating to get 2000 poverty nos. To make comparisons between 2000 and 2005, PLs for 16 strata have to be mapped on to 14 strata Deflated to 2000 poverty lines using price indices similar to above In both options, PLs reflect regional differences in prices and consumption patterns E PP PkP Pa P_P PEP PVP PG=GCkCGYG_CE C TGC  f___PPT10i.`+D=' = @B +"h  > og$O(  $' $ ~ ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   n $  x`0 0e0e?Rectangle 2 p  3d \Sensitivity analysis of poverty incidence: national PL with current food basket (Option 3)] ] ]r $  x 0e0e?Rectangle 3 3d National (not stratum-specific) Upper and Lower PLs using CBN; consumption exp adjusted for regional price differences Derive a spatial price index to adjust consumption for regional price differences Derive national (Upper and Lower) PLs with the price adjusted consumption exp and the existing food basket Identify the poor by comparing the price adjusted consumption exp. with the national PLs Update over time using a single price index (a composite price index of survey based food price index and non-food CPI) Advantage: Easy to communicate and update PLs over time (changes in the no. of strata do not matter) Disadvantage: Cannot fully control for differences in consumption pattern between regions Very difficult to include non-food items in spatial price indextw P PxP P  P[P P P PGoG CCICCGCCYCCCYC G[ C  G  C   f___PPT10i.+D=' = @B +" > ((  (' ( ~ 1 ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   X (  x0 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `  3d FMore sensitivity analysis: national PL with new food basket (Option 4)G G  G (  x1 0e0e?Rectangle 3`  3d Identical to Option 3 with one change Food basket re-estimated to reflect the current consumption pattern of the poor The basket comprises of average food consumption of the reference group (consisting of the price adjusted consumption expenditure decile 2nd to 6th) However, does not take into account any normative judgment on balanced nutrition, unlike the existing food basket For BD, Option 4 has obvious appealing attributes But, more careful work and consensus-building needed before adopting such a radical change To change the food basket, consensus needs to be built to take into account any normative judgment More analysis needed on spatial price indices to appropriately reflect nonfood prices& ZP Z Zr@  Z Z&GPCCKCKCrCGC  f___PPT10i.p+D=' = @B +"1 > 80,(  ,' , ~@2 ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   ' ,  x1 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `  3d [Recommended: Option 2 $  ,  x3 0e0e?Rectangle 30  3d Re-estimated using HIES 2005 which uses the latest available sampling frame Since this frame will be used until the next Census, easy to update PL (using just price indices) for the next few surveys Reflects changes in consumption pattern between 1991-92 and 2005 Unlike options 3 and 4, does not imply radical changes in methodology Estimates using option 1 are also presented to allow direct comparison with existing/PRSP numbers Estimates using options 3 and 4 used to check robustness of trends to different methodologies zL {P ZP Z_ ZLG{CFGC  f___PPT10i.@*+D=' = @B +" >  990(  0' 0 ~@K ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   ] 0  xK 0e0e?Rectangle 2` `  3d APoverty headcount rates (%) using Upper PLs from Options 1 and 2"B % B `L  0C ,Group 5883"W'P_h<7!PK!8[Content_Types].xmlAN0EH%N@%邴K@`dOdlyLhoDX3'AL:*/@X*eRp208J妾)G,R}Q)=HiҺ0BL):T뢸WQDY;d]6O&8* VCLj"󃒝 yJ.;[wIC_ :{IOA !>Ø4 p;fɑ3׶Vc.ӵn(&poPK!8! 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bvpޡ@~PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlPK`@B 20 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlDAo0 HA!i4h* PI;~~}ygq!k QRj82)7L+&3TPfR"~d[x;Zg0ѕR;Fs$K5DŽ [z8FoWs'Ԡ-A¿; bvpޡ@~PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlPK`@B 30 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlDAo0 HA!i4h* PI;~~}ygq!k QRj82)7L+&3TPfR"~d[x;Zg0ѕR;Fs$K5DŽ [z8FoWs'Ԡ-A¿; bvpޡ@~PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlPK`@B 40 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlDAo0 HA!i4h* PI;~~}ygq!k QRj82)7L+&3TPfR"~d[x;Zg0ѕR;Fs$K5DŽ [z8FoWs'Ԡ-A¿; bvpޡ@~PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!'Ռdrs/downrev.xmlPK`  ?B 50 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK``L ?B 60 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPKL ?B 70 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK`?B 80 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK`L L { 90 by ??Text Box 577 j Depending on assumptions regarding population growth this translates into around 7 million people lifted out of poverty between 2000-05 2G   f___PPT10i.+D=' = @B +" }' > &|& 4d&(  4' 4 ~` ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   _ 4  zy 0e0e?Rectangle 62` `  3d ARobustness of poverty trends using Upper PLs from options 3 and 4"B % BN!     4C ,Group 1473"  PK!8[Content_Types].xmlAN0EH%N@%邴K@`dOdlyLhoDX3'AL:*/@X*eRp208J妾)G,R}Q)=HiҺ0BL):T뢸WQDY;d]6O&8* VCLj"󃒝 yJ.;[wIC_ :{IOA !>Ø4 p;fɑ3׶Vc.ӵn(&poPK!8! _rels/.relsj0 }qN/k؊c[F232zQLZ%R6zPT]( LJ[ۑ̱j,Z˫fLV:*f"N.]m@= 7LuP[i?T;GI4Ew=}3b9`5YCƵkρؖ9#ۄo~e?zrPK!ң&drs/e2oDoc.xmlX_o8?龃m!,ЂJw= PIcGB?l UZ2q9gp%(>Fɳ.豹$"RS$53;dzRӊڰ'Ͼ=tղ#3ox˱R*ܻñ@_ܗJdVW]&5S (,|@HǐT\cX1J-z} uP]tb` ΎĮkV̥?diDjnV\DJ mS>ZMڳke vݸVcaʉDm]3'M arܓ)9Ap n_p|mV-VZn5AÐ$Y3ٳ),sC*S!T6j7 nKB},JYRhU059DΥR,5fg˥e#jZB%kQ =]݇ Df߱ף9;Z2@Ba'sߤMkp7}7XFvǴ`B BN]#{&ȸx2.,㤵Xvi]rx.%|.;onם;wPK!U|drs/downrev.xmlDOk@ n,*R(ЋF#LboFw Y;S+5`4L@VW\(g5֖II)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!YVdrs/downrev.xmlDN0EH5HCQJ u+@ T)IXC#u}Nl"-Z龥z ~Wc~ۗ:LJ w .G+g lU0d,APK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!YVdrs/downrev.xmlPK    2Notes: *Based on new (Upper) PLs estimated using HIES 2005 and deflated for 2000 using composite price indices between years. **Based on new (Upper) PLs estimated with a new food basket from HIES 2005 and deflated for 2000 by composite price indices between years. To measure changes in poverty headcount over time, estimates for different years based on the same option should be comparedh CC&C-C CC  ?B 4 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK ?B 4 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK  ?B 4 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK  ?B  4 s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK    4 b`y ??Text Box 132 Both options indicate the same direction and magnitude of poverty reduction as options 1 and 2, although the levels of poverty headcount are differentF 2GGaG    4 `A???Picture 148  f___PPT10i.pw6+D=' = @B +"  >  8{(  8' 8 ~y ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   i 8  xy 0e0e?Rectangle 2P  3d YInternational Comparison with Other South Asian Countries (using option 2 for Bangladesh)Z Z Z 8 ^ y ??Text Box 3p  ESource: Bangladesh HIES 2000 & 2005; India NSSO 93/94 and 99/00 (based on Deaton and Dreze (2002); Nepal NLLS 95/96 & 2003/04; Pakistan PIHS 2001/02 & 2004/05; Sri Lanka HIES 1990/91 & 2000. Note: 1) The rate of reduction for India are quite different (lower) when estimates from other sources are used, e.g. Kijima and Lanjouw (2003) 2)The graph shows % reduction in poverty headcount per year.x 2CC CCC:CC   8  |A??Picture 4 0  3d f___PPT10i.2+D=' = @B +"o  > vn0<V(  <' < ~y ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   9 <  xy 0e0e?Rectangle 2` `  3d m'Density and distribution of consumption( ( ( < ^y ??Text Box 6O s bDensity of per capita consumption Cumulative distrn of per capita consn. Rightward shift in density curve  showing rising average consumption Cumulative distribution shows that for a very large range of poverty lines, poverty reduction (2000-05) will be of similar magnitude Such robustness explains why all 4 options show similar poverty reductiondJ 2 JGf3oE!EE _  < ^A???Picture 12p;T ( < Ty ??Text Box 13  @PL: Population weighted average of 16 (upper) PLs using option 2"A @ A  f___PPT10i.˶+D=' = @B +" > !@))@(  @' @ ~0D??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   d @  z`0D0e0e?Rectangle 43 `  3d FOther measures of poverty using Upper PLs from (recommended) Option 2"G  , G.   `  @C ,Group 1033"O  PK!8[Content_Types].xmlAN0EH%N@%邴K@`dOdlyLhoDX3'AL:*/@X*eRp208J妾)G,R}Q)=HiҺ0BL):T뢸WQDY;d]6O&8* VCLj"󃒝 yJ.;[wIC_ :{IOA !>Ø4 p;fɑ3׶Vc.ӵn(&poPK!8! _rels/.relsj0 }qN/k؊c[F232zQLZ%R6zPT]( LJ[ۑ̱j,Z˫fLV:*f"N.]m@= 7LuP[i?T;GI4Ew=}3b9`5YCƵkρؖ9#ۄo~e?zrPK!'drs/e2oDoc.xml]r:?34/`C0%6E2@@2v#>HCz3ަnrX 4!A:̼,k$)[iTK4<.M6cIz ʫs0lcey_ƊDvNM'J)qZm,jݽ .2+:ʶ騯FL 1mھ}D4^_C~=vG]y^*>^{AσOot:fJksv!GҰ= O-sqJȲn \K3^JwlY=M4̟Zcj]`ڲ*\_8 ݺ&^|^ٵ%|9-g0m9E~M\cHz80!ͷ)H k6Il/TBFĖL/ A(|-do2,g0GK29XQ!o./FrwNl}@j-haL}yFr$8Fx!ScIeNUĀ6h԰{ꆉ P޼(þ0o;:>*h@ \Pcc~KTeœjkșQv~~0KdkjmjZ0&J Tu$88)Oۖ2*CN?78u{l5 4[1c wl(Bקh0#u[1&KMآ^?B{pNj `'&ڃSj h65q#!md4ͰGɮa3}@=Cjx(Qyz#?A8<^P{!!}vsAnb߈iL ( 'lF|+kLbw3#h]1A\D\GUaBT š#6z;BJMD?g>(8!P38<͘B\9u]`@ `@b^0u]0Ԙ>~|Bj~=mbRs} _-2'! 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KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK` ?B #L s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK` ?B $L s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK``?B %L s *o#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!@drs/downrev.xmlDJ1!lUMK+i?0MfwɚDrfΜs|p)DYxT Xg1!l= EϮX-Tl±DMJ])e 9#[ÔPK]+b"Z vڐڝk?VV_-+no DC}|~9kM` g?PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!@drs/downrev.xmlPK   &L `` ??Text Box 37@  _Since 1995-96, changes in national and sectoral Ginis are statistically insignificant (at 5% level) Between 2000 and 2005, both the slight decline in urban gini and rise in rural gini are statistically insignificantF 2:EEE   f___PPT10i. +D=' = @B +",  > 3+P(  P' P ~ ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   X P  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2` 0S  3d FRich-poor gaps based on indicators of relative and absolute inequalityG G G P  x! 0e0e?Rectangle 3  3d XGrowth rate of mean exp >10% for all deciles; ~14% for bottom and top deciles  the ratio between mean per capita exps of top and bottom deciles remained 6.44 But the gap between mean exps of top and bottom deciles increased from 2310 tk in 2000 to 2640 tk in 2005 (constant 2005 tk at rural Dhaka prices) Thus the curve on the right has become steeper in 2005, even as growth rates were quite evenly distributed across decilesnP ZTG3G3OG3G3G3  P \A???Picture 4V  f___PPT10i.O+D=' = @B +"[ > bZTB(  T' T ~ ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   ) T  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `@  3d ]Rich-poor gaps (contd.)    T  x` 0e0e?Rectangle 3  3d RRatios of percentiles of per capita exp have remained mostly unchanged between 2000 and 2005 (e.g. p90:p10, p50:p10)  little change in relative inequality But gaps between percentiles have increased (e.g. p90-p10, p50-p10)  increase in absolute inequality   ZG3  T \A ???Picture 4p  f___PPT10i.bF+D=' = @B +") > 0(X(  X' X ~  ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   = X  x 0e0e?Rectangle 2` `  3d q+Changes in distribution of household income, , ,d X0 s A   ?5%8c8c    ?Object 3"[(  3d f___PPT10i.ye+D=' = @B +"# > *"\ (  \' \ ~@" ??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   1 \  ~ ! 0e0e?Rectangle 2008 `}  3d _Characteristics of the Poor " j \0 s A   ?5%8c8c    ?Object 2011"`(  3d f___PPT10i.8i+D=' = @B +" > &`(  `' ` ~# ??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   - `  ~" 0e0e?Rectangle 1717 `  3d [Characteristics (cont.)  j `0 s A  ?5%8c8c    ?Object 1149"`(  3d f___PPT10i.@d+D=' = @B +" > "d(  d' d ~Oq??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   + d  |Nq0e0e?Rectangle 651 `  3d [Characteristics (cont.)   h d0 s A  ?5%8c8c    ?Object 330"0`(  3d f___PPT10i. ;+D=' = @B +"0 > 7/h(  h' h ~`Oq??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   @ h  ~Mq0e0e?Rectangle 1159P `@  3d n*Regional variations& .   h h0 s A ?5%8c8c    ?Object 777"P(  3d f___PPT10i.P9+D=' = @B +" > l(  l' l ~Lq??6Slide Number Placeholder 6^ `  h*   ' l  xLq0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  3d [Trends in extreme poverty  d l0 s A ?5%8c8c    ?Object 3"(  3d f___PPT10i.+D=' = @B +"$ > +#p (  p' p ~# ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   4 p  x`# 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `}  3d h Changes in assets of the poorest! !C$ !h p0 s A ?5%8c8c    ?Object 230"(  3d f___PPT10i.Q+D=' = @B +" >  t(  t' t ~@% ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   2 t  x$ 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `0  3d fCharacteristics of the poorest C$  t  x% 0e0e?Rectangle 3` ` 3d S Around 80% of the poorest households are headed by individuals with no education and less than 1% have higher secondary education Around 75% of households in the bottom decile are landless Almost 50% day laborers are below the lower poverty line Around 60% of the poorest households are in Rajshahi, Khulna and Barisal divisions Only 2% of households who are in the bottom decile get remittances from abroad compared to 10% average Household size (5.4) of bottom 10% is significantly greater than national average (4.9)   Z C  f80___PPT10.A"  > W O 0x7 (  x' x ~`& ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   6 x  x& 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `p  3d jConcluding thoughts ( CC$  x  x& 0e0e?Rectangle 3 ` 3d ~Impressive reduction in poverty between 2000-05 with a modest rise in inequality. Certain non-income measures mirror these gains However gains in poverty are unevenly distributed across regions  a story of 2 Bangladesh s is emerging Doubling of remittance flows and micro-credit access, migration to urban growth centers, growing gaps in returns to education are plausible hypotheses behind these trends of the last 5 yrs that will now be explored While there has been a fall in extreme poverty, and those in extreme poverty have also improved their asset base, there are still a staggering 35 million people below the lower poverty line. Hence focused public policy / interventions remains essential. C  f80___PPT10.ar" > @|(  |' | ~( ??6Slide Number Placeholder 5^ `  h*   . |  x ' 0e0e?Rectangle 2 `  3d bNext steps using HIES 2005 C   |  x@( 0e0e?Rectangle 3 ` 3d 1Complete determinants of poverty change work in order to better understand the reasons for these trends in poverty / inequality In parallel work analyzing other HIES modules is on-going (e.g. labor markets, extreme poverty, lagging regions, remittances, safety nets, education/health, agriculture/non-farm, migration) On-going dissemination as results emerge Draft Poverty Assessment report expected mid 2007h    )  2 C  f___PPT10i.S+D=' = @B +"$d 7/@(    f - ??Rectangle 7_   h*       r0e0e?Rectangle 2   3d   x/ 0e0e?Rectangle 3 0  3d N    3380___PPT10.÷44$d (    fw??Rectangle 7_   h*       r0e0e?Rectangle 2   3d   x`s0e0e?Rectangle 3 0  3d uBundle consists of rice, wheat, pulses, milk, oil, meat, fresh water fish, potato, other vegetables, sugar and fruitsv v v  3380___PPT10.. 8$d 7/(    f- ??Rectangle 7_   h*       r0e0e?Rectangle 2   3d   x* 0e0e?Rectangle 3 0  3d N    3380___PPT10. gQ$d (    f+ ??Rectangle 7_   h*       r0e0e?Rectangle 2   3dv   x@+ 0e0e?Rectangle 3 0  3d `95% CI for national, urban and rural Ginis of 2005: National: (0.30, 0.32); Rural: (0.27, 0.29); Urban: (0.33, 0.37) 95% CI for national, urban and rural Ginis of 2000: National: (0.30, 0.32); Rural: (0.26, 0.28); Urban: (0.35, 0.39) Gini for per capita income: 91-92: 0.39; 95-96: 0.43; 2000: 0.45; 2005: 0.47. 95% CIs for 2005 income gini: 0.44-0.49a a a  3380___PPT10.MxX˶7Ф& D! 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   ( zOn-screen Show (4:3)The World Bank Groupqe  "ArialGeorgiaDefault Design!Microsoft Office Excel WorksheetoPoverty and inequality trends in Bangladesh: Insights from the 2005 Household Income and Expenditure Survey Presentation structure>Bank-Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics collaboration on poverty<How to estimate poverty: Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) approach@Poverty measurement in Bangladesh from previous rounds of HIES /Poverty lines: key options considered for 2005Key options: 1 and 2]Sensitivity analysis of poverty incidence: national PL with current food basket (Option 3)GMore sensitivity analysis: national PL with new food basket (Option 4)Recommended: Option 2BPoverty headcount rates (%) using Upper PLs from Options 1 and 2BRobustness of poverty trends using Upper PLs from options 3 and 4ZInternational Comparison with Other South Asian Countries (using option 2 for Bangladesh)(Density and distribution of consumptionGOther measures of poverty using Upper PLs from (recommended) Option 2'Changes in regional poverty headcounts"Consumption growth across deciles9Consumption inequality has remained stable since 1995-96GRich-poor gaps based on indicators of relative and absolute inequalityRich-poor gaps (contd.),Changes in distribution of household incomeCharacteristics of the PoorCharacteristics (cont.)Characteristics (cont.)Regional variations.Trends in extreme poverty!Changes in assets of the poorestCharacteristics of the poorestConcluding thoughts Next steps using HIES 2005  Fonts UsedThemeEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titles#_=I >Ross MacKayRoss MacKay  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      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